[Morbicouver Closed Door Meeting] Judging from the social financing data, this year's trend optimistic about banks and insurance, and market confidence is gradually recovering! The inspection team withdrew Ant Tencent, and development is preferred over-regulation
📊 Market confidence recovery: Social financing data shows that market confidence is gradually recovering, the banking and insurance industries have promising prospects, the overall economy tends to be rational, loan growth slows down, but bond issuance accelerates.
💡 Internet financial supervision has stabilized: Ant and Tencent’s inspection teams have withdrawn, indicating that Internet financial supervision has entered a stable stage and has pushed up the stock prices of related companies.
🏦 Bank and Insurance Prospects: In a low interest rate environment, the banking and insurance industries are still attractive, bank stocks continue to hit new highs, and the insurance industry increases equity investment.
🌱 Gas industry prospects: Despite the market’s concerns about a slowdown in growth, some companies with diversified businesses (such as Xinao Energy) will benefit, with an attractive valuation of the overall gas industry and a dividend yield that hit a record high in years.
🔮 Risk management and transformation: The risk preferences of the financial industry are gradually increasing, financial risks converge, and market confidence is gradually recovering, especially the performance of technology stocks is better, indicating that China's economic transformation is gradually advancing steadily.
Q: How does Morgan Stanley view China's financial market trends?
A: Morgan Stanley believes that social financing data shows market confidence is gradually recovering, and the outlook for the banking and insurance industries is promising. Although the growth rate of loans has slowed down, the issuance of government bonds has accelerated, the overall economy has gradually become rational, Internet financial supervision has stabilized, and Ant and Tencent's inspection teams have withdrawn.
Q: How did the social financing data perform in January 2024?
A: The social financing data in January performed normally, with loans generally slightly less than in previous years, but government bonds were issued faster. In the loan structure, mortgage loans have risen, but medium- and long-term personal loans are weak, consumption recovery is slow, and overall loans are showing a rational slowdown.
Q: What challenges and opportunities does the gas industry face?
A: The main challenge facing the gas industry is concerns about slowing growth, especially the reduction in expectations for the growth rate of the natural gas industry in 2025. However, the market is overly concerned about the slowdown in gas volume growth, and the expansion of gross margin can compensate for the impact of the decline in gas volume, and overall profit growth remains stable.
Q: What is your view on China's economic transformation?
A: China's economic transformation is steadily advancing, financial risks are gradually converging, and Internet financial supervision is becoming more stable. Although the transformation process is more painful, market confidence has gradually recovered, especially under the trend of innovation-driven, the industry has performed more positively.
