Hartnett在最新一期的Flowshow描述了一个playbook：
once high bond yields & US dollar force Fed to turn unambiguously hawkish, and lower stocks force Trump to mellow on tariffs we flip “BIG” (likely Feb/March)…
long Bonds (buy 5% yields), International stocks (long China, UK, EM), and Gold (lower real rates)
1）Monetary & fiscal "policy panic" in Asia & Europe
2）China consumer recovery (note copper trying to breakout)
3）Trump pivot from tariffs to taxes
4）Potential US-Iran tension followed by push for Russia-Ukraine peace.
如果美十债和强美元迫使美联储转向更清晰的鹰派立场，从而带崩股市、迫使川普在关税上更慎重。如果这种情况在2-3月发生，那么可以选择在10Y 5%时做多债券和港股A股等新兴市场，以及黄金
（其实就是Trading bad news is good news，一个波动率高的策略+一个波动率高的川普=较差的投资体验）
